Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -115 MCN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -0.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -0.4 (-5.4) | 154.0 (+1.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -0.2 (-4.8) | 156.4 (-1.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -0.2 (-4.8) | 157.8 (-2.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -0.7 (-4.3) | 158.3 (-3.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#337) | -8.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#332) | -1.95 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#327) | -2.24 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#293) | 0.437 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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