Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -1800 NWST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +19 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -16.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -16.9 (+2.1) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -14.2 (+4.8) | 135.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -14.4 (+4.6) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -15.0 (+4.0) | 132.2 (+14.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | MCN 89 – 65 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-2 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#62) | -3.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#69) | -0.48 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#80) | -0.51 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#36) | 0.487 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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