Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NWST +500 MCN -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +23 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -6.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -9.2 (-13.8) | 132.1 (+28.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -5.6 (-17.4) | 131.5 (+29.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -7.0 (-16.0) | 132.7 (+28.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -6.6 (-16.4) | 132.6 (+28.4) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | MCN 89 – 65 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 19-1 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#217) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#194) | 0.72 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#182) | 1.04 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#144) | 0.550 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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