Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -6500 NWST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +38 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -25.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -22.7 (+15.3) | 143.1 (+2.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -20.5 (+17.5) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -18.1 (+19.9) | 144.8 (+1.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -20.4 (+17.6) | 144.5 (+1.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | MCN 89 – 65 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 8-14 |
| Home | 14-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#58) | -10.6 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#59) | -3.41 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#58) | -4.94 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#36) | 0.339 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 26.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 54.8% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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