Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -2000 NWST +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +24 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -24.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -16.8 (+7.2) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -18.6 (+5.4) | 146.0 (+8.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -20.8 (+3.2) | 145.9 (+8.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -20.3 (+3.7) | 146.1 (+7.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-4 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 11-3 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#77) | -13.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#29) | -2.43 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#23) | -2.76 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#56) | 0.376 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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