Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +155 LONG -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -4.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -3.9 (+11.9) | 137.9 (-5.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -3.9 (+11.9) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -4.1 (+12.1) | 141.0 (-9.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -3.8 (+11.8) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2022 | LONG 79 – 65 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2022 | LONG 79 – 71 NCAT |
| Dec 8, 2020 | LONG 77 – 60 NCAT |
Game Analysis
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