Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -10.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -9.4 (-1.4) | 140.6 (+9.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -10.1 (-2.1) | 140.2 (+9.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -10.0 (-2.0) | 140.2 (+9.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -9.5 (-1.5) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2022 | LONG 79 – 65 NCAT |
| Feb 12, 2022 | NCAT 70 – 62 LONG |
| Dec 8, 2020 | LONG 77 – 60 NCAT |
Game Analysis
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