Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LONG +110 NCAT -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -16.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -9.9 (+7.1) | 142.4 (-5.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -9.3 (+7.7) | 142.9 (-5.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -10.1 (+6.9) | 140.9 (-3.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -8.4 (+8.6) | 145.2 (-8.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2022 | LONG 79 – 65 NCAT |
| Feb 12, 2022 | NCAT 70 – 62 LONG |
| Jan 27, 2022 | LONG 79 – 71 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#112) | -8.0 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#221) | -1.30 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#225) | -2.08 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#265) | 0.391 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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