Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USU -700 NEV +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +13 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -13.2 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.6 (-24.6) | 146.7 (+10.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -13.3 (-26.3) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -12.6 (-25.6) | 146.6 (+10.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -12.8 (-25.8) | 146.7 (+10.3) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#40) | 0.6 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#69) | 0.58 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#55) | 0.77 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#57) | 0.527 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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