Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NEV +195 USU -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.9 (+6.9) | 147.5 (+9.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.7 (+6.7) | 145.7 (+11.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -4.0 (+7.0) | 147.6 (+9.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.8 (+6.8) | 149.6 (+7.4) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NEV 77 – 63 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#78) | 17.3 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | 2.83 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#79) | 3.32 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#54) | 0.633 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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