Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USU -225 NEV +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +14 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -6.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.4 (-20.4) | 148.2 (-8.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.4 (-20.4) | 145.6 (-5.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.0 (-20.0) | 147.8 (-7.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.8 (-19.8) | 148.8 (-8.8) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#31) | 10.1 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#7) | 1.95 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#17) | 2.25 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#6) | 0.586 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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