Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -165 USU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -0.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -0.6 (-5.6) | 142.6 (-9.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.8 (-6.8) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.6 (-5.6) | 143.1 (-10.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.4 (-6.4) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NEV 77 – 63 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#56) | 13.7 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#105) | 3.72 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#90) | 5.04 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#93) | 0.658 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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