Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USU -1100 NEV +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | USU -13.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -11.8 (-2.8) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.7 (-2.7) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.2 (-3.2) | 150.2 (-17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -11.1 (-2.1) | 150.5 (-17.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NEV 77 – 63 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#22) | 7.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#27) | 1.65 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#32) | 2.17 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#19) | 0.598 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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