Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USU -295 NEV +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.6 (+14.4) | 143.9 (+15.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -7.2 (+13.8) | 140.0 (+19.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.0 (+14.0) | 144.1 (+14.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.9 (+15.1) | 145.0 (+14.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NEV 77 – 63 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#45) | 9.2 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#21) | 0.99 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#24) | 1.65 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#20) | 0.535 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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