Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USU -285 NEV +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.3 (+9.7) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -4.8 (+8.2) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.9 (+9.1) | 146.6 (-1.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.9 (+9.1) | 147.7 (-2.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
| Feb 7, 2024 | NEV 77 – 63 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#33) | 8.2 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#36) | 1.43 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#43) | 1.74 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#20) | 0.571 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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