Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -700 BALL +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -12.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -11.5 (-5.5) | 154.4 (-0.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -11.1 (-5.1) | 156.3 (-2.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -11.9 (-5.9) | 156.3 (-2.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -11.5 (-5.5) | 154.7 (-0.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 9-10 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#111) | -5.8 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#144) | -0.62 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#129) | -0.81 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#123) | 0.453 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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