Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–40 on winners spread MAE 8.8 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +9.5 132.3 81% 57–72 ✓
Niagara @ Rider +6.4 128.1 72% 62–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +5.2 121.0 68% 61–57 ✗
Iona @ Manhattan -14.4 144.8 9% 84–76 ✓
Canisius @ Fairfield +4.2 133.7 65% 58–67 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's +5.8 152.7 70% 57–49 ✗
VCU @ Richmond +1.7 127.7 56% 74–62 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +7.0 138.0 74% 61–87 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University -7.6 147.8 25% 73–66 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner +4.6 124.3 66% 50–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.4 158.4 72% 92–85 ✗
Toledo @ Buffalo -2.4 175.2 41% 86–77 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico +1.7 141.3 56% 79–81 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +21.4 161.9 97% 82–95 ✓
Miami @ Duke +6.2 145.4 71% 66–68 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -8.9 143.9 21% 87–61 ✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas +10.9 135.9 84% 57–69 ✓
UCF @ South Florida -6.1 134.9 29% 72–85 ✗
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech +0.3 140.4 51% 80–63 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -1.6 132.9 44% 79–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis -12.6 148.8 13% 89–77 ✓
Dayton @ George Washington -5.5 135.0 31% 69–76 ✗
TCU @ Kansas +8.8 144.5 79% 83–60 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +10.6 131.6 83% 53–66 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +7.4 139.9 75% 69–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +3.1 137.2 61% 85–82 ✗
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's +1.3 146.5 55% 68–74 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +1.4 147.3 55% 60–52 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -5.8 124.4 30% 62–51 ✓
Navy @ Army +3.8 146.8 64% 77–71 ✗
UCLA @ Arizona -2.4 152.9 41% 52–58 ✗
Virginia @ Wake Forest -3.1 137.7 39% 76–67 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -0.9 118.1 47% 59–61 ✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas State +7.3 147.0 75% 58–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +9.0 134.9 79% 80–73 ✗
American University @ Colgate +8.6 144.7 78% 61–62 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -3.0 136.3 39% 78–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +2.9 117.1 61% 61–57 ✗
Boston College @ Notre Dame +5.9 132.7 71% 84–72 ✗
Cornell @ Harvard -0.6 146.0 48% 89–95 ✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton +16.4 135.1 93% 90–93 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +6.1 161.3 71% 77–93 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kentucky +4.3 143.1 65% 67–76 ✓
Fordham @ Duquesne +8.5 145.1 78% 65–58 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +10.8 139.6 84% 58–64 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian -8.9 130.6 21% 58–56 ✓
High Point @ Radford +12.1 143.6 86% 80–95 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop -2.4 137.1 41% 63–61 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio +11.7 138.7 86% 68–96 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -2.7 140.6 40% 81–85 ✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota -13.7 148.1 11% 84–72 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +3.8 131.3 63% 75–73 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota +1.1 143.7 54% 68–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +2.6 141.3 59% 90–86 ✗
Delaware @ Drexel +5.6 129.2 70% 74–77 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson +11.7 141.9 86% 81–87 ✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville +2.8 136.9 60% 70–77 ✓
Liberty @ North Florida -11.9 140.1 14% 73–62 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +14.1 152.4 90% 64–75 ✓
Nebraska @ Penn State +8.2 132.5 77% 65–76 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +15.6 148.7 92% 71–84 ✓
Akron @ Western Michigan -6.6 139.9 27% 63–55 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth -0.0 142.0 50% 83–66 ✓
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +13.1 145.9 88% 71–64 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +11.1 142.9 84% 78–62 ✗
Marshall @ Arkansas State -13.0 136.8 12% 87–78 ✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss +3.0 148.5 61% 70–83 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +3.0 125.0 61% 52–58 ✓
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois -0.3 148.2 49% 56–60 ✗
Denver @ South Dakota State +9.1 145.9 80% 61–76 ✓
Auburn @ South Carolina -15.4 129.5 8% 81–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +1.6 152.1 56% 88–67 ✗
Tennessee @ LSU -15.6 126.3 8% 77–56 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall -0.5 144.9 48% 74–53 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma -0.2 145.6 49% 62–60 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State +10.7 147.3 84% 66–70 ✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central +17.8 139.8 95% 55–74 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -12.2 134.9 13% 97–61 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +9.1 137.2 80% 78–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +14.7 130.4 91% 85–97 ✓
Florida International @ UTSA -0.2 150.9 49% 77–72 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +4.5 136.2 66% 63–52 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Loyola Chicago -3.3 131.7 38% 55–67 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +9.5 127.8 81% 48–59 ✓
Towson @ Elon -8.8 132.7 21% 66–62 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +1.6 132.1 56% 67–63 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -3.7 147.9 37% 79–76 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay -2.6 139.3 41% 74–59 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming -1.4 148.8 45% 57–58 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -1.0 161.1 47% 96–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard -0.4 144.3 49% 56–88 ✗
Nicholls @ McNeese -2.5 142.6 41% 71–68 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +10.7 142.9 83% 78–91 ✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock +0.4 154.1 51% 77–89 ✓
Morehead State @ Lindenwood +1.0 134.5 54% 72–63 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -0.4 151.6 49% 76–70 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +5.5 148.7 69% 73–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +8.7 148.1 78% 82–72 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +3.1 141.8 61% 68–51 ✗
NC State @ North Carolina +4.0 157.3 64% 69–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +6.5 158.4 72% 73–83 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +13.6 136.1 89% 53–77 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State -1.1 140.6 46% 60–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +7.2 131.4 74% 49–69 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans -6.4 150.4 28% 88–65 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Sam Houston +21.3 152.2 97% 64–83 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston Southern +3.1 143.1 61% 78–76 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +14.9 137.3 91% 47–57 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +6.3 151.7 72% 77–84 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri -8.1 171.9 23% 85–64 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +1.1 149.0 54% 69–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +2.5 145.7 59% 50–51 ✓
Indiana State @ Murray State -1.3 150.6 45% 73–82 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +10.8 142.9 84% 63–70 ✓
UNLV @ Fresno State -4.0 128.2 36% 63–76 ✗
San José State @ Utah State +12.3 143.6 87% 74–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +2.8 156.2 60% 60–81 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +10.3 145.2 82% 65–74 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +3.0 162.9 61% 76–91 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +0.5 128.7 52% 54–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +11.9 137.5 86% 63–65 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego -3.4 145.1 38% 112–110 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M +1.4 145.9 55% 70–59 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.9 142.0 36% 55–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.