Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–24 on winners spread MAE 9.5 76 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Minnesota -13.8 131.0 10% 61–39 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -22.3 145.3 2% 69–55 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +11.5 134.9 85% 78–88 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +9.1 139.1 80% 45–66 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant +13.1 153.5 88% 75–87 ✓
Binghamton @ UAlbany +2.9 143.7 60% 65–54 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee +0.7 124.5 52% 58–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +5.9 142.1 70% 58–64 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +15.2 131.7 92% 60–70 ✓
Mercer @ VMI -2.4 144.3 42% 69–61 ✓
James Madison @ Troy +0.4 144.8 51% 89–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +9.1 131.6 80% 72–59 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +6.4 128.1 72% 58–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -1.5 135.2 45% 84–93 ✗
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -8.4 145.1 22% 83–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +2.2 147.6 58% 88–80 ✗
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky -0.3 124.1 49% 56–57 ✗
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +1.0 127.2 53% 79–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra +4.4 137.7 66% 46–70 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +6.8 135.1 73% 53–80 ✓
Hampton @ Drexel +18.6 133.6 95% 73–79 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -3.0 137.0 39% 79–67 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +4.7 147.6 67% 82–81 ✗
Queens University @ North Florida -2.6 158.5 41% 90–95 ✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville -5.3 116.2 31% 66–52 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida Gulf Coast +13.7 137.5 89% 51–55 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston +12.1 138.0 86% 71–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -17.4 146.9 6% 83–64 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +12.1 135.4 86% 72–60 ✗
McNeese @ Nicholls +10.3 143.5 82% 64–73 ✓
East Texas A&M @ LSU New Orleans -0.5 151.4 48% 63–58 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian +2.8 149.1 60% 89–78 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UT Arlington +3.6 147.4 63% 73–85 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +10.4 132.7 83% 72–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -8.1 139.3 23% 80–71 ✓
Marshall @ Texas State -5.9 135.7 30% 81–73 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State -8.1 151.9 23% 92–69 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota -2.3 125.0 42% 60–77 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota State +9.6 140.9 81% 61–84 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +0.7 150.9 53% 75–60 ✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +7.6 159.1 76% 80–60 ✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -18.9 151.0 4% 86–70 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +7.8 138.6 76% 69–77 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +4.5 150.2 66% 74–72 ✗
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +4.4 146.0 65% 88–83 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado -2.8 155.4 40% 83–75 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +3.2 148.6 62% 62–75 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +2.9 125.9 60% 56–45 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +1.9 149.0 57% 91–81 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar -11.9 149.3 14% 66–68 ✗
Indiana @ Illinois +5.0 147.0 68% 80–65 ✗
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +15.5 136.5 92% 67–58 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock -0.6 150.0 48% 77–75 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +13.5 157.9 89% 68–67 ✗
USC @ Arizona +9.2 158.0 80% 66–81 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +5.4 142.2 69% 74–85 ✓
Washington State @ Utah +3.6 130.2 63% 63–77 ✓
Washington @ Colorado +10.4 141.0 83% 75–72 ✗
Florida International @ UTEP +7.4 136.2 75% 61–81 ✓
New Mexico State @ Southern Utah +7.1 156.9 74% 76–111 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +5.7 166.0 70% 83–88 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +7.6 139.4 76% 74–78 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood -1.2 146.9 46% 81–65 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State +3.2 141.0 61% 68–84 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +0.7 135.7 53% 61–65 ✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +6.7 142.2 73% 47–67 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +15.9 122.9 93% 52–72 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly +4.5 121.9 66% 71–64 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +5.6 133.4 70% 68–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +3.4 149.1 62% 67–72 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State -5.8 132.9 30% 74–62 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +9.0 127.8 79% 46–67 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +9.1 154.4 80% 57–78 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -11.4 140.1 15% 73–44 ✓
BYU @ Santa Clara +3.9 144.6 64% 76–83 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +10.8 134.9 84% 65–86 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.