He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–11 on winners spread MAE 8.3 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +7.0 126.6 74% 68–78 ✓
TCU @ West Virginia +4.4 146.4 66% 65–74 ✓
Auburn @ LSU -4.9 133.2 33% 67–49 ✓
Cincinnati @ South Florida -1.5 141.3 45% 85–69 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +6.9 136.2 73% 58–73 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -10.9 145.7 16% 77–71 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +6.3 120.9 72% 70–59 ✗
Bradley @ Indiana State +0.3 139.0 51% 78–67 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville -13.5 137.7 11% 75–54 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +3.3 142.4 62% 45–63 ✓
Ohio State @ Nebraska -5.6 138.1 31% 60–63 ✗
Florida @ Texas A&M +2.9 142.2 61% 52–54 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -7.3 145.8 25% 76–59 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure -0.2 138.9 49% 56–65 ✗
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +7.1 132.7 74% 60–61 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +4.3 158.4 65% 66–71 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +6.9 128.6 73% 59–64 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern +0.2 151.1 51% 73–63 ✗
Radford @ Campbell -1.9 130.5 43% 63–55 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina +1.4 140.9 55% 71–76 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State -3.8 139.4 37% 69–59 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +3.5 157.7 62% 77–69 ✗
SMU @ Tulsa -1.0 145.3 46% 79–76 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +7.2 132.7 74% 63–65 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +5.7 126.6 70% 65–62 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +13.3 143.6 89% 54–84 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas +2.6 163.4 59% 78–73 ✗
Xavier @ DePaul -9.0 162.3 21% 72–73 ✗
Providence @ Marquette +6.6 159.9 73% 75–83 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri -0.3 160.6 49% 76–79 ✗
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +3.3 126.6 62% 56–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +10.2 138.6 82% 85–89 ✓
Oregon @ California -5.7 127.1 30% 87–58 ✓
San Diego State @ Colorado State -3.1 146.2 39% 82–76 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan State -2.2 121.1 42% 57–70 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.