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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston
@
Tulane
|
-15.3 | 141.4 | 8% | 80–60 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Kansas State
|
+0.2 | 149.6 | 51% | 82–83 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Mississippi State
|
-8.1 | 114.7 | 23% | 70–59 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Valparaiso
|
+2.3 | 138.5 | 58% | 66–76 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Georgia Tech
|
-5.9 | 143.9 | 30% | 78–66 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Notre Dame
|
+5.8 | 142.6 | 70% | 84–71 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
North Carolina
|
+19.2 | 144.9 | 96% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Butler
|
-2.0 | 137.7 | 43% | 73–52 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
Richmond
|
+9.8 | 128.7 | 81% | 57–64 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Dayton
|
+11.9 | 127.6 | 86% | 61–68 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
VCU
|
+7.3 | 138.8 | 75% | 55–83 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
+6.3 | 165.6 | 72% | 75–90 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-16.7 | 146.9 | 6% | 77–63 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Central Michigan
|
-5.5 | 131.0 | 31% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Buffalo
|
+5.9 | 160.6 | 71% | 71–100 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Ball State
|
+13.9 | 147.5 | 90% | 70–71 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Miami (OH)
|
+4.4 | 147.9 | 66% | 81–77 | ✗ |
Texas
@
Iowa State
|
+3.2 | 129.3 | 61% | 67–78 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Southern Illinois
|
+18.9 | 122.8 | 96% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Vanderbilt
|
-10.6 | 158.3 | 17% | 78–66 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Wisconsin
|
+1.2 | 130.4 | 54% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Wake Forest
|
+1.7 | 153.9 | 56% | 77–87 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Texas Tech
|
+0.3 | 148.8 | 51% | 81–74 | ✗ |
Murray State
@
Belmont
|
+6.8 | 147.8 | 73% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Kentucky
|
+8.1 | 135.3 | 77% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Air Force
|
+6.6 | 132.9 | 73% | 74–82 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Utah State
|
+8.5 | 153.8 | 78% | 71–75 | ✓ |
San José State
@
New Mexico
|
+11.1 | 143.8 | 84% | 57–77 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Boise State
|
+5.4 | 129.2 | 69% | 62–77 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Army
|
+8.0 | 148.4 | 77% | 68–66 | ✗ |
UMBC
@
UMass Lowell
|
+6.5 | 153.7 | 72% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
Morgan State
|
+22.4 | 134.4 | 98% | 84–92 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Seton Hall
|
-4.6 | 132.4 | 34% | 66–67 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.