Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GT +188 NCSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -6.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.9 (-6.1) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -5.9 (-6.1) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -5.6 (-6.4) | 146.4 (-2.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.2 (-5.8) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | GT 78 – 74 NCSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GT 87 – 62 NCSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NCSU 82 – 76 GT |
| Feb 4, 2023 | NCSU 72 – 64 GT |
| Feb 16, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 61 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#151) | 11.2 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#148) | 2.41 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | 2.85 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#166) | 0.591 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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