Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GT -165 NCSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +25 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | GT -3.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -3.5 (+21.5) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -2.9 (+22.1) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -3.3 (+21.7) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -3.8 (+21.2) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | GT 78 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NCSU 82 – 76 GT |
| Feb 4, 2023 | NCSU 72 – 64 GT |
| Jan 18, 2023 | NCSU 78 – 66 GT |
| Feb 16, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 61 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#103) | 4.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#116) | 0.08 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#114) | 0.37 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#183) | 0.470 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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