Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USU -333 UNLV +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USU -8.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.1 (-3.1) | 153.3 (-7.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.9 (-2.9) | 153.6 (-7.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.2 (-2.2) | 151.2 (-5.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.7 (-2.7) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#35) | 6.8 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#40) | 1.33 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#32) | 2.05 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#25) | 0.583 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 27.5% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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