Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USU -360 UNLV +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | USU -7.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.3 (+5.7) | 137.9 (-9.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.2 (+4.8) | 141.8 (-13.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.0 (+5.0) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.1 (+4.9) | 140.7 (-12.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNLV 65 – 62 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#43) | 5.1 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#34) | 1.09 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#39) | 1.53 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#21) | 0.543 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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