Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +200 USU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.5 (+8.5) | 142.4 (-15.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.8 (+8.8) | 145.2 (-18.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.7 (+8.7) | 146.6 (-19.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.4 (+9.4) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#118) | 13.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#110) | 3.74 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#104) | 4.93 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#134) | 0.649 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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