Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +285 USU -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +27 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USU -10.5 (+37.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -8.3 (+35.3) | 158.1 (-1.1) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -7.5 (+34.5) | 156.8 (+0.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -8.0 (+35.0) | 158.4 (-1.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -8.2 (+35.2) | 158.5 (-1.5) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNLV 65 – 62 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | 16.0 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#114) | 2.49 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#123) | 2.97 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#121) | 0.621 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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