Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | USU -395 UNLV +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USU -10.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -8.0 (+12.0) | 156.7 (-16.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -8.9 (+11.1) | 155.5 (-15.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -8.2 (+11.8) | 156.5 (-16.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.8 (+12.2) | 156.6 (-16.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNLV 65 – 62 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#35) | 4.1 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#38) | 0.81 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#44) | 0.92 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#21) | 0.531 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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