Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USU -650 UNLV +460 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | USU -13.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -12.6 (-7.6) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -12.2 (-7.2) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.5 (-7.5) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -11.8 (-6.8) | 144.3 (+2.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNLV 65 – 62 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#37) | 3.9 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#20) | 0.98 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#19) | 1.48 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#22) | 0.535 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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