Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | USU -1650 UNLV +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -18.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -17.2 (-27.2) | 155.4 (+6.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -16.1 (-26.1) | 156.7 (+5.3) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -16.0 (-26.0) | 155.6 (+6.4) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -17.0 (-27.0) | 155.3 (+6.7) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNLV 65 – 62 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#28) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#32) | 0.23 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#41) | 0.11 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#18) | 0.510 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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