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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–7 on winners spread MAE 7.6 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ Miami	+9.0	152.5	79%	78–82	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky	-7.2	138.9	26%	76–62	✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland	-0.7	133.9	47%	74–70	✓
North Texas @ Florida International	-8.3	125.1	23%	64–57	✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania	-1.7	145.0	44%	72–60	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill	+2.5	158.6	59%	65–57	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Long Island University	-2.1	141.8	42%	73–66	✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+4.5	132.1	66%	72–60	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hampton	-3.8	149.8	37%	79–67	✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington	+17.3	135.3	94%	54–62	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Bethune-Cookman	-1.3	142.5	45%	77–71	✓
Wagner @ Merrimack	+0.8	110.7	53%	62–57	✗
Rice @ UTSA	-4.5	161.9	34%	88–81	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside	+11.2	126.9	85%	78–83	✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern	+4.2	143.7	65%	82–84	✓
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M	+5.3	139.5	69%	77–68	✗
UAB @ Middle Tennessee	-2.1	155.3	42%	73–74	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine	+5.7	136.5	70%	73–65	✗
Montana State @ Idaho	-6.6	138.0	27%	70–74	✗
Montana @ Eastern Washington	+3.8	144.5	64%	57–64	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i	+15.6	121.7	92%	51–58	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton	+9.9	119.7	82%	46–76	✓
Ole Miss @ South Carolina	-7.2	126.5	26%	70–58	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.