Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -225 CLE +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +12 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -4.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -2.8 (-14.8) | 138.1 (-6.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -3.0 (-15.0) | 139.1 (-7.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -2.7 (-14.7) | 138.5 (-6.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -3.2 (-15.2) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#156) | 0.4 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#145) | -0.15 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#146) | -0.13 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#176) | 0.472 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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