Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF -500 CSUB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +30 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -10.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -8.4 (+21.6) | 127.6 (-5.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -10.2 (+19.8) | 126.1 (-4.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -8.2 (+21.8) | 130.4 (-8.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -8.6 (+21.4) | 130.3 (-8.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 80 CSUB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CSUB 91 – 54 CSUF |
| Jan 24, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 68 CSUF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSUB 73 – 71 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#174) | -6.8 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#180) | -1.39 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#181) | -1.62 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#169) | 0.412 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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