Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -600 CSUF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +37 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -9.4 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -7.9 (+29.1) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -7.9 (+29.1) | 140.7 (+4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -7.2 (+29.8) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -8.3 (+28.7) | 139.9 (+5.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 80 CSUB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 66 CSUB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 68 CSUF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSUB 73 – 71 CSUF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | CSUF 68 – 50 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 1-19 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-11 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#253) | -11.6 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#246) | -1.91 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#233) | -2.38 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#289) | 0.416 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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