Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -125 CSUF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -2.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -0.8 (+1.2) | 130.7 (+13.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -0.1 (+2.1) | 130.6 (+13.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -0.6 (+1.4) | 128.9 (+15.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -1.0 (+1.0) | 129.6 (+14.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 80 CSUB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CSUB 91 – 54 CSUF |
| Jan 24, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 68 CSUF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | CSUF 68 – 50 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#264) | -4.0 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#276) | -0.17 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#270) | -0.44 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#300) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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