Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | FIU +350 UNT -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +7 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -8.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.0 (+1.0) | 130.1 (-9.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -9.0 (+2.0) | 129.8 (-8.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.6 (+0.6) | 131.1 (-10.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.6 (+0.6) | 131.7 (-10.7) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2022 | UNT 72 – 57 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 56.3 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#251) | 8.2 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#213) | 2.01 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#247) | 2.33 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#236) | 0.598 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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