Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -115 PRIN -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +12 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -1.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -1.2 (-10.8) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -3.2 (-8.8) | 140.5 (-8.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -0.9 (-11.1) | 143.3 (-11.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -1.8 (-10.2) | 143.0 (-11.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PENN 61 – 60 PRIN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PRIN 78 – 76 PENN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PRIN 95 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PRIN 61 – 59 PENN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PRIN 105 – 83 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#172) | 5.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#199) | 0.44 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#184) | 0.95 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#185) | 0.527 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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