Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -300 SYR +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -8.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -7.6 (-3.6) | 152.4 (+7.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -8.0 (-4.0) | 151.9 (+8.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -7.8 (-3.8) | 151.8 (+8.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -7.3 (-3.3) | 151.6 (+8.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIA 85 – 76 SYR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MIA 91 – 84 SYR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SYR 72 – 69 MIA |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MIA 75 – 72 SYR |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MIA 88 – 87 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#53) | 4.2 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#18) | 0.83 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#23) | 1.20 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#23) | 0.540 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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