Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -130 SYR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +1 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -2.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.0 (-2.0) | 159.2 (+15.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.3 (-0.3) | 157.2 (+17.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.2 (-2.2) | 157.6 (+17.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -2.6 (-1.6) | 159.1 (+15.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIA 85 – 76 SYR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MIA 91 – 84 SYR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SYR 72 – 69 MIA |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MIA 82 – 78 SYR |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MIA 75 – 72 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 5.3 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#57) | 0.60 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#61) | 0.57 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#46) | 0.533 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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