Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -140 SYR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -0.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -0.6 (+7.6) | 156.7 (+18.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.3 (+6.7) | 154.2 (+20.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -0.6 (+7.6) | 156.7 (+18.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -0.6 (+7.6) | 156.4 (+18.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIA 85 – 76 SYR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SYR 72 – 69 MIA |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MIA 82 – 78 SYR |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MIA 75 – 72 SYR |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MIA 88 – 87 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#181) | 2.1 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#289) | 0.54 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#263) | 0.81 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#272) | 0.527 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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