Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -1.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -0.4 (-3.4) | 155.3 (-8.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -1.6 (-4.6) | 152.5 (-5.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -0.9 (-3.9) | 157.2 (-10.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -0.8 (-3.8) | 157.3 (-10.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIA 85 – 76 SYR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MIA 91 – 84 SYR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SYR 72 – 69 MIA |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MIA 82 – 78 SYR |
| Jan 6, 2022 | MIA 88 – 87 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#83) | 8.4 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#108) | 1.80 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#101) | 2.27 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#119) | 0.570 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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