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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cornell
@
Columbia
|
-13.8 | 148.0 | 10% | 102–85 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+13.6 | 145.0 | 89% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Towson
|
+0.2 | 138.1 | 51% | 47–68 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Harvard
|
+12.5 | 128.0 | 87% | 60–59 | ✗ |
Saint Joseph's
@
La Salle
|
+1.7 | 147.1 | 56% | 71–59 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Sacred Heart
|
+5.2 | 154.8 | 68% | 51–54 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan State
|
-4.4 | 130.7 | 35% | 64–63 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Charlotte
|
+10.9 | 120.6 | 84% | 60–58 | ✗ |
George Washington
@
George Mason
|
+7.9 | 143.6 | 76% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
Alabama A&M
|
+6.5 | 142.7 | 72% | 69–61 | ✗ |
William & Mary
@
Charleston
|
+16.2 | 144.8 | 93% | 54–82 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Florida A&M
|
+3.7 | 125.3 | 63% | 59–60 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Yale
|
+13.5 | 129.3 | 89% | 78–81 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
UMBC
|
+22.5 | 143.0 | 98% | 62–87 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Minnesota
|
-9.8 | 137.8 | 19% | 78–60 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Northeastern
|
+0.7 | 137.6 | 53% | 58–59 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC San Diego
|
-4.9 | 139.4 | 33% | 78–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.