Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -8.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.0 (-10.0) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -7.5 (-10.5) | 141.2 (+11.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -6.5 (-9.5) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -6.7 (-9.7) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#123) | -1.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#122) | -0.58 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#125) | -0.58 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#85) | 0.456 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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