Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -142 GW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.9 (+2.1) | 146.5 (-13.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.4 (+1.6) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.1 (+1.9) | 148.3 (-15.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.9 (+2.1) | 148.1 (-15.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
| Feb 14, 2024 | GMU 90 – 67 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#89) | 9.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#27) | 0.66 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#33) | 1.04 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#36) | 0.533 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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