Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -600 GW +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +23 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -9.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.0 (+14.0) | 150.6 (+6.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -9.3 (+13.7) | 148.6 (+8.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -9.9 (+13.1) | 149.1 (+7.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -10.7 (+12.3) | 149.9 (+7.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#97) | -1.2 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#94) | 0.21 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#98) | 0.05 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#71) | 0.501 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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