Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | GW -170 GMU +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +19 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | GW -5.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -3.5 (+15.5) | 143.6 (-18.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -4.3 (+14.7) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -4.1 (+14.9) | 142.2 (-17.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -3.7 (+15.3) | 143.4 (-18.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
| Feb 14, 2024 | GMU 90 – 67 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 17-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#72) | 6.2 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#145) | 1.65 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#131) | 1.82 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#124) | 0.591 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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