Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | GW +105 GMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +3 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -2.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.8 (-0.2) | 130.8 (-27.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.2 (-0.8) | 132.5 (-29.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.1 (+0.1) | 131.7 (-28.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.0 (-0.0) | 133.1 (-30.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
| Feb 14, 2024 | GMU 90 – 67 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 18-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#132) | 7.8 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#141) | 1.67 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#137) | 2.76 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#142) | 0.588 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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