Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -425 GW +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -8.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.6 (-4.6) | 133.3 (+23.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -8.7 (-5.7) | 136.5 (+20.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.6 (-4.6) | 131.4 (+25.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.7 (-4.7) | 133.0 (+24.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Feb 14, 2024 | GMU 90 – 67 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#75) | 2.3 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#89) | 0.40 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#58) | 0.59 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#80) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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