Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–17 on winners spread MAE 8.7 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +8.5 144.9 78% 59–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +7.2 139.5 74% 73–78 ✓
UAlbany @ NJIT +4.9 138.6 67% 67–74 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV +7.6 147.1 76% 82–81 ✗
Air Force @ Fresno State +1.1 120.6 54% 51–48 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +14.6 136.5 91% 65–72 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +8.7 147.3 79% 56–64 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +11.0 144.3 84% 67–86 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +12.6 144.2 87% 65–73 ✓
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +14.1 140.1 90% 71–83 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -2.1 136.7 42% 82–64 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -8.4 126.7 22% 74–53 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +6.0 153.2 71% 78–74 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Liberty +23.6 144.8 98% 62–82 ✓
Chicago State @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.7 153.9 67% 82–85 ✓
Colorado @ UCLA +13.6 137.1 89% 54–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ Texas +11.1 142.8 84% 70–72 ✓
Stanford @ Washington State +9.9 133.6 81% 59–60 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +11.1 120.1 84% 57–69 ✓
Bradley @ Drake -2.1 124.4 42% 61–86 ✗
Wake Forest @ Boston College -3.5 143.4 37% 85–63 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +8.4 141.8 78% 85–80 ✗
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts +13.2 159.4 88% 69–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ Kansas City +7.9 133.4 76% 60–52 ✗
Mississippi State @ Auburn +5.9 121.0 70% 63–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana +4.9 160.3 67% 66–80 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +7.3 150.5 75% 76–67 ✗
UT Arlington @ New Mexico State +12.9 135.8 88% 66–55 ✗
Sam Houston @ Utah Tech -5.2 140.4 32% 78–53 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific -3.6 153.9 37% 92–81 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +9.5 150.1 81% 81–91 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +5.9 137.4 70% 55–84 ✓
Portland @ Gonzaga +17.3 162.7 94% 75–115 ✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist -0.6 124.6 48% 74–79 ✗
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +10.7 156.8 84% 84–98 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +8.0 134.0 77% 65–64 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +8.8 165.1 79% 69–67 ✗
Utah @ USC +1.6 136.0 56% 56–71 ✓
Boise State @ Wyoming -8.0 131.1 23% 85–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -8.7 131.3 21% 78–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +8.0 142.0 77% 70–79 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +18.4 153.0 95% 85–74 ✗
Marquette @ Xavier +3.2 171.4 61% 76–80 ✓
Marist @ Niagara +6.6 120.4 73% 66–64 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -3.2 144.2 39% 62–66 ✗
Northwestern @ Michigan +1.6 133.9 56% 78–85 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +1.4 136.1 55% 81–70 ✗
Rider @ Iona +15.1 142.8 91% 70–67 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +0.6 122.3 52% 56–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's -4.4 133.0 34% 58–51 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers +4.5 132.8 66% 64–68 ✓
Memphis @ Temple -4.7 149.3 33% 61–59 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +2.1 140.9 58% 62–64 ✓
Maryland @ Iowa +4.3 151.5 65% 67–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.