Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -7.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -8.6 (-8.4) | 133.0 (+6.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.9 (-12.1) | 133.9 (+5.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.2 (-9.8) | 135.1 (+3.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.0 (-9.0) | 134.1 (+4.9) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#113) | 15.2 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | 1.94 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#125) | 2.72 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#174) | 0.606 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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