Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -850 SF +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +25 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -13.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -14.2 (+10.8) | 140.6 (-7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.2 (+12.8) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.6 (+12.4) | 139.3 (-6.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.8 (+12.2) | 141.4 (-8.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SMC 77 – 60 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#38) | 4.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#36) | 0.54 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#33) | 0.91 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#23) | 0.518 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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